When the Badgers have the ball
UW offensive coordinator Paul Chryst paused when considering which facet of Penn State's defense is strongest. Far be it from Chryst to draw the ire of any part of a defense that ranks first in the Big Ten Conference in yards (250.3 per game), rushing (80.2 ypg) and pass efficiency (96.3 rating).
After the requisite disclaimers, Chryst settled on the defensive line, which is surprising, given the constant turmoil at the position. Defensive tackles Chris Baker and Phil Taylor were booted off the team in the offseason, while defensive end Maurice Evans and defensive tackle Abe Koroma were suspended for three games before returning the last two weeks.
"You don't want to make it sound like you're minimizing the secondary or the linebackers," Chryst said. "You don't play that good a defense with just four guys, or rotating six. They've got players across the board ... but we thought that last year, they had the linebackers, but (we) said, `They're young and they're good (in the line). Now, they're a little older and they're still good."
Penn State lost its best defensive player, linebacker Sean Lee, to a knee injury in the spring, but sophomore LB Navorro Bowman has emerged as a playmaker and is already being compared to LaVar Arrington. Penn State is tied for the Big Ten lead with 17 sacks and tied for second with nine interceptions.
The Badgers hope to have tight ends Garrett Graham, who missed the last two games with a foot injury, and Travis Beckum together for only the second game this season. Redshirt freshman tailback John Clay, who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry, will continue to have an increased role.
ADVANTAGE: Penn State.
When the Nittany Lions have the ball
UW defensive coordinator Dave Doeren is not into labels when it comes to Penn State's Spread HD offense, which is supposed to a mix of the West Coast passing game and the spread running attack.
"They say that," Doeren said. "You can watch the last two years of Penn State offense and it's very similar. The difference is, they've got the quarterback back there that can run."
Junior quarterback Daryll Clark has rushed for only 133 yards because he hasn't needed to do any more. The Nittany Lions have had their way with mostly weak defenses so far, averaging Big Ten bests of 44.8 points, 499.7 yards and 256.7 rushing yards per game.
Clark leads the conference in passing efficiency and, the feeling is, it's only a matter of time before he hurts defenses with his legs, too.
The supporting cast isn't bad, either. The senior receivers, Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood, are the best group in the conference. Running back Evan Royster is averaging 7.8 yards per carry and had a career-high 194 all-purpose yards last week against Purdue.
Senior A.Q. Shipley is arguably the best center in the conference and leads a big and talented line. It'll be a big challenge for a UW defense that was outstanding last week against Ohio State except for two touchdown drives.
"We had a sandwich game, terrible first drive, terrible last drive and great in between," strong safety Jay Valai said. "YOu can't do that because you're not going to win."
ADVANTAGE: Penn State.
Special teams
As if Penn State doesn't lead the conference in enough categories, it is also first in kickoff returns, averaging 29.4 yards. Derrick Williams has two kick returns for touchdowns and is averaging 33.4 yards, so the Badgers will have to try and kick away from him.
Strong-legged kicker Kevin Kelly is 7-for-8 in field-goal attempts with his only miss coming from 60 yards. He also has seven touchbacks, compared to one for UW kicker Philip Welch.
The Badgers need to improve a punt return unit that ranks last in the conference (4.8 average) and has only 29 yards on six returns. Coaches praised the job backup fullback Bill Rentmeester did last week blocking for the return teams.
"He had five knockdowns, three of which are big-time hits that really were a statement in the return game," UW coach Bret Bielema said.
ADVANTAGE: Penn State.
Intangibles
The Badgers lead the series 8-5, including 6-5 since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993. UW has won three of the last four at home and has held the Nittany Lions to just six points in the last two games here.
Penn State's only win at Camp Randall Stadium since 1996 was a 34-31 win in 2002. But this looks like the best Nittany Lions team since 2005, when it whipped UW 35-14 in State College, Pa.
Whatever feelings of invincibility the Badgers had during a 16-game home winning streak vanished after last week's 20-17 loss to Ohio State.
ADVANTAGE: Penn State.
Prediction
I thought the Badgers would put forth a great effort last week against Ohio State and they did, but they couldn't overcome the poor play of quarterback Allan Evridge and a defense that couldn't make a play when it absolutely needed to on the game-winning drive.
So, now what? Their first 0-3 start in the Big Ten since 2002 would look pretty bleak, especially going into games against Iowa, Illinois and Illinois. The Badgers surrendered 38 points to Penn State last year when Anthony Morelli was the quarterback, so it's hard to imagine what Clark is capable of doing against them with all his weapons.
The Nittany Lions, favored by 5.5 points, should pass their first big test without too many problems.
My prediction: Penn State 34, UW 17.
Season record: 2-3 (straight up), 2-3 (spread).